The 4th-worst team in the NBA

As every shoolchild knows, the success of an NBA team in the regular season is strongly influenced by relative shooting skill and defensive ability.  Teams that shoot well and are good at keeping their opponents from shooting well tend to have great success.  This chart shows the relationship for the 2018 season, plotting the Effective Field Goal % differential (EFG% minus opponents' EFG%) for each team against its winning percentage.

This simple relationship accounts for about 2/3 of the variance in winning percentage in the Association during the regular season.  For teams in the southwest quadrant, the next steps are pretty simple:  find players who shoot and defend better (both, ideally).  One obvious role model would be the Galacticos Warriors, the rightmost dot on the chart, whose ability to score under all conditions only slightly overshadows their strong defense.  In 2018 these qualities ultimately led (not without adventure) to their third championship in four years.

But the chart also illustrates something that our eyes told us, to wit, the Warriors of 2018 were exceptionally brilliant, but were also underachievers, delivering a winning percentage of .707 as compared to the .811 that their shooting and defensive prowess might have rightfully earned.  In fact, the Warrior’s shortfall against the regression line was among the worst in the NBA, and the worst for a playoff team (gold bars are playoff teams).

Note that most playoff teams significantly exceeded their predicted winning percentage in the regular season.  Why?  Because the EFG% differential only accounts for 2/3 of the variance in performance.  Most good teams do other things well:  winning the possession battle, getting second-chance baskets, and controlling the pace of the game so as to favor their preferred style of play.

But the 2018 Warriors are not like most good teams.  They can be the fourth-worst team in the NBA versus expectations and still pour champagne at the end.  They are so good they just don’t have to care about the rest of it.  Has there ever been such a team?  Ever?

Let's play the first quarter left-handed

This also sheds some light on the Warriors’ plans for the 2018-2019 season.  Steve Kerr and the front office have made no secret of their intention of going with lots of younger players.  This is partly for economic reasons and partly because they will need to eventually find replacements for the aging Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingston.  But it is probably also true that a group of young players competing for their future will try harder.  

And aren’t we all sick of this.  In 2016 they failed to win a championship, in 2017 they failed to sweep in the Finals, and now this.  After years of disappointment, isn’t it time for the Warriors to start being the great team we know they can be?