THE BEGINING OF THE END OF THE WHIFFLE PRESIDENCY?

Kerry Leads Bush in two polls, again, by 6-8 points EVEN WITH NADER (or perhaps "nadir"). The conventional wisdom of the media push may not have much effect - the undecideds are minor, the trend persistent, the president's approval continuing a steady, slow overall decline in an environment of extraordinary rigidity and partisanship. Switches won't happen easily. Even if we get Bin Laden, the Sadaam experience suggests that the political impact will be relatively minor. The best Bush's goons came up with was Kerry's "indecisiveness" - the generic attack one uses on anyone, when you can't think of anything better. Mars? Steroids? - They're out of ideas. Bush's ads effectively remind everyone about the recession and the dead duck jobs picture. And Kerry campaign is issuing targetted responses before the Bush attacks even occur.

In a election with a sitting president, it's a referrendum on Bush, Kerry's "liberalism" is a non-starter, and Ds are incredibly energized. I can think of a thousand reasons it won't work, but I'm thinking of '92, and I think we're in a better position at this stage, Perot or no.