Encouraging Poll; Plus Notes on Cousinfuckin'
New ABC poll has delightful bad awkward news for W.
Meanwhile, I note a problem, unavoidable but distorting, with phrasing of most polls that include Nader, (the cousinfucker), on the question. The phrasing usually says something of the order of Bush, the republican, Kerry, the Democrat, or Nader, the Independent. The work independent, like the phrase working class, has a different meaning for Americans than it does for political scientists. Last I looked, a large majority of Americans defined themselves as working class, and nearly a third identify as independents. Most would identify being independent as a positive trait. If I think of phone polls I've answered, or' given, people aren't thinking "Nader" so much as "Independent," which probably bumps up Nader much the way Perot was in 92. But I don't expect a major independent vote this year any more than I expect a substantial rise in support for Marxism. Which leads me to a partial prediction at the election: W down or up, Nader polls under 2% total, not the 4 to 7 he (the cousinfucker) often gets.
posted by JAB at 6:47 PM
6 Comments:
Very soon he will have "handed over sovereignity," and watch the spin machine kick into higher gear than ever if people try to make anything out of our continued combat casualties. I'd say that Iraq is already priced into the market, and this is just a minor swing.
I hope very much to be proven wrong about that. Meanwhile, Clinton has taken most of the Iraq issue away from Kerry, leaving him still appearance-challenged and quibbling (or so it will seem) about timing, which even a first-year flack can chew up and spit back at him.
I have to disagree. Outside of his core supporters, Bush 's spin machine, which has been in full operation for many months and has rapidly blown through Bush's war chest, has failed to demonstrate a consistent ability to affect moderate voters since about last November. They push for a few days, and the effect evaporates. I think they're actually at capacity and have nowhere to ramp up to, and events of their own making are proving too difficult to spin. Barring a massively illegal campaign or quasi-fascistic power grab, which they may be capable of but is probably unlikely, I don't expect any new signs of superhuman campaign capacity out of the Bush re-election effort.
Also, getting an internal vibe from the Democratic party, I doubt very much that some level of coordination isn't going on between Clinton and Democratic regulars in Kerry's campaign. In this early summer campaign, I would have advised Kerry to lie fairly low, run good bio spots and chip away at domestic issues until the convention, which is what's happening. The election will be about Bush and his growing failures and breaking of trust (this last element is where a real shift is happening, an abandoning of Bush by some key Republican moderates and a growing number of military and small town families). When his best bet is to prove an trustworthy alternative to Bush, a primary-like aggressive campaign right now would work against him; he has to introduce himself, establish trust, build a feeling of competence and progressive wisdom. When you want to kick Bush in the teeth, it is slow and unsatisfying to watch.
That it is.
But if I hear you correctly, what we have to hang our hopes on is this:
-Bush's machine cannot produce more than transitory effects, and its fuel supply is dwindling
-The media will keep Bush's feet to the fire and expose or remind us of his misleadership
-Kerry is keeping a low profile now
-Kerry can be expected to try to win peoples' trust
-Some presumed GOP stalwarts are jumping ship
-Clinton is helping Kerry
The last point has been a dark suspicion of the cons and neo-cons for many months. It is unlikely to work in Kerry's favor.
The media are either too cowed by the Right or outright controlled by it to be of much help in exposing Bush. In the run-up to the most recent war, CNN's correspondents were pressured not to report stories that might undermine the administration's case.
The very words with which they might make the case are being skillfully poisoned. To most of the electorate, the very name "Clinton" has become as perjorative as the terms "liberal" and "progressive." Thus has the GOP taken important linguistic beacheads, and they will use them to fight from a position of strength.
Even if the Bush machine produces only transitory shifts in his support, a well-timed shift will likely be all he needs to prevail at the polls.
If Bush makes enough scary noises and his cronies sling enough mud, many of the ambivalent swing voters will stay home, in ratios that are hard to guess.
To win, Kerry must do more than introduce himself, he must build a positive impression in the minds of an angry or indifferent electorate. The Dems must create, but the GOP has only to destroy, scare, and confuse. Kerry faces an uphill battle, to say the least.
I know that I am arguing against my team here, and it is most unsettling to produce this analysis. The thing is, the tea leaves are confused and ambiguous, and they reveal much to comfort and disturb each team. Even in my darkest moments, I believe that the solid anti-Bush faction gives Kerry at least a 40% chance.
I long to be convinced that my fears are misplaced.
Then allow me, although your fears are often well placed.
The media was too cowed, particularly in the lead up to the last war. But I think if we are not quite to aggression on the part of the media we are past subservient timidity; the unusual NYT mea culpa and an avalanche of "bad facts" has generally broken the silence.
Clinton simply isn't a dirty word to most of the public. The last poll I checked had a generally positive view of his presidency except for a hard right core of around 35%. You may recall that his popularity actually peaked at the height of the impeachment hearings. The word "progressive," is regarded as a positive quality by most of the public, although "liberal" is regarded as a negative.
The GOP position of strength was based on a combination of 9/11 fallout, a now broken myth of "character" related to straight talk, overwhelming preference for Bush in fighting terrorism, and uniformity in the ranks. All these are gone, demonstrated most startlingly in the degree to which the adminsitration has strongly cheesed off its own Congressional majority, and to the considerable erosion in military families trust of the Adminstration's war arguments. Bush is the one forced to rebuild at this point, under fire from left and right.
The transitory shifts of an early campaign are very different from the late campaign, where if Kerry has even minimal competence, all shots are immediately answered. He was nominated largely because of his ability to rapidly beat back a series of nasty shots from Dean, and the current tie in the polls has everything to do with Kerry's ability to anticipate and outmanuver the Bush campaign over the spring. He's beaten back all attacks and has only gained support in the last three months.
All polling evidence points to an unusally engaged electorate, not an indifferent or disaffected one. This is completely different than in 2000. The polls indicate Americans are paying attention here far more than in recent presidential elections. In a tight, lively, election, you can by and large expect swing voters to participate, rather than shrink away in despair.
All right, I'll bite: where is the poll showing how people feel about "progressive" and "Clinton." I'm sure they've been done, but haven't sought them out.
I do notice that Kerry polls ahead of GW in only five of eleven polls in pollingreport.com's "June Trial Heats," and generally not by much. I am not comforted.
Nearly all these polls include Nader - you'll notice that most polls, because of the uncertainty of Nader support, include a Nader in/Nader out question. Also the bulk of the Bush skewed polls were taken in the Reagan lovefest week. AND Kerry leads most electoral counts.
Anyway: some of the Clinton polls: http://www.pollingreport.com/clinton-.htm. I read the minimum anti Clinton core as Bush's base support.
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