That Election Postponement Looking More Likely

If you've been following Rasmussen Reports, you know that there has been an infuriating stability all year in the Bush/Kerry numbers, with neither side getting ahead by three or more points for more than three days. It's finally broken today, with a fragile Kerry lead, backed up by most of the reported polls at pollingreport.

As much as I enjoyed the internal GOP memo on a post-convention bump, I agree with the Rasmussen point about the country being unusually polarized; convention bumps on both sides will be more limited, I'm guessing around 5-6%, if that. We're seeing one with Edwards obviously, but I'm not certain it's going away. I don't see Bush's support going under 39% in any circumstances short of photos of him blowing a goat he bought with a $45 Million personal check from Bin Laden, which would take him to 37%.

What is happening is that Edwards demonstrated that undecided voters can be swayed, if temporarily, for truth and justice, etc, if it wears a smile and nice suit. We'll have to despair about this another time, and in the meantime, unleash the Edwards (let's hope super trial lawyer Edwards is thinking of Kerry as his client). More seriously, Edwards is an effective populist, which is where Bush is, after being in office, weakest.

Another sadly positive factor was the persistent majority saying the economy is getting worse, which if you happen to buy your groceries with a hard micropercentage of GDP, is sort of wrong, but if you're looking for work, recall Paul Kruger's point about an unchanged percent of adults working. For most Americans, the economy is at best not getting worse, but it is getting far less secure psychologically, and I think, in reality. And long term insecurity is already showing up in shaky retail sales.

Does an artist care about shaky retail sales? Well, sure, I'm basically in retail. (I also remember a leading economic indicator from a homeless fellow - if the discarded cigarette butts are getting shorter, look for a recession).

Another surprising factor is that Kerry is closing in on Bush with raised money, about $180 mil to 210 (You had to enjoy Bank of America being "unable to process" Kerry's donations for about a day last week- and in my conspiratorial moments...) But there was a small point that had me very worried, which is now past- Oregon. Oregon was dead split a month ago, even leaning Bush. This has shifted to about an 8 point Kerry lead. That's now past.

Kerry is leading at the moment, Nader is actually taking votes away from Bush as well(!), and the quiet point is that there is no question that it is possible for Kerry to win. What can go wrong? Everything. And I don't discount the possibility of illegal domestic security action of some kind. But we now know that things can also go right.