One Remaining Innocent Question

Why did the exit polls differ so much from the actual results? There will be finger-pointing at the pollsters, of course. But perhaps a look at the results is in order. Our friend at Princeton thinks it was mostly on the up-and-up, but notes that something unusual may have happened in Florida:

"Exit polls were more favorable to Kerry by 3.0 ± 1.5% (median ± SD) than real voting. This is tentative since I do not have the most complete exit polling data. Currently, in FL I have an exit poll margin of Kerry +1 and a real voting margin of Bush +5%; the discrepancy, 6 points, is again somewhat extreme. This is consistent with the discrepancy noted above. In OH I have an exit poll margin of Kerry +1 and a real voting margin of Bush +2; the discrepancy, 3 points, is right in the middle of the range. I don't know why exit polls would differ systematically, though one obvious possibility is the gender gap in respondents."

I don't know if something's rotten, but if it was on a plate I wouldn't risk eating it.