Something Old, Something New

Well, we're now three games into the NFL season, so I thought I'd see how the quarterbacks are faring. You might recall that Dr. X evaluates quarterbacks using IAYPA - Interception-Adjusted Yards-per-Attempt. It is a modified form of the YPA measure, taking the form:

(Passing Yards-(50*INT)) / Attempts

This imputes a 50-yard penalty for each interception thrown. It rewards QBs who throw long successfully without turning over the ball - the definition, to my mind, of a good player at the position.

In practice the measure is a little severe, and tends to overrate gutless throwaway artists like Neil O'Donnell, and underrate he-man risk-takers like Bret Favre. At some point I will have to undertake a rigorous study and determine the optimal correction factor, but for now it's 50 yards based on a statisical analysis I saw in 1988.

So, who looks good? The top players on the measure are:

• B. Roethlisberger (11.5 yards per attempt) - Hasn't thrown a pick this year. That, folks, is a Professional Foot-Ball Player. No one else is in double-digits.
  
• D. Bledsoe (7.7) - Not...dead...yet... The Cowboys are 2-1 and Bledsoe is completing 65% of his passes. But evil Drew showed up last week and threw two interceptions. I've seen this before - Bledsoe can still absolutely dominate, but his disaster games are becoming more and more frequent.
• K. Collins (7.5) - John Madden was right: Randy Moss is good. Collins hasn't thrown an interception all year, and is third in the league in IAYPA. Daunte Culpepper? 5th-from-last with an IAYPA of 3.7. Given the choice of great attitude or great ability, take the ability.
  

And here are the three QBs most likely to be replaced if they have another bad game:

• D. Carr (1.9) - Apparently not all his fault, due to porous offensive line. He's taken 13 sacks, second only to Mark Bulger (15).
  
• J. Harrington (1.7) - Na na nah nah, na na nah nah, hey-hey...
  
• K. Orton (1.6) - League-leading 6 INTs. Unadjusted YPA of 5, lowest in the league.

Others of interest:

• T. Brady (6.9) - Standing out quietly with the 7th-best rating in the League.
• D. McNabb (6.9) - Think how well he'd play with all his limbs attached.
• M. Hasselbeck (6.8) - Can't complain about championship-caliber play at the position YTD.
• D. Brees (5.3) - Last year's Cinderella Story, comin' out of nowhere, is dead average this year.
• M. Vick (5.0) - Looking very mortal so far.
• T. Rattay (3.8) - I want to believe, but throw me a bone here. 5 picks YTD.

We'll have another look around midseason.