December 09, 2007

Points or Yards?

Dr. X posts this from the Linear Weights Department at the National Football League:

"One persistent conceptual problem in the statistical analysis of football is whether to use points or yards to measure success. There are problems with both variables, but also some correlation. This article from Football Outsiders does an outstanding job of explaining this complex, nuanced, and yet robust relationship.

"It also makes me feel better about my 50-yard IAYPA intercepton penalty...these guys find the average cost of a turnover is four points, which mean I'm pretty close."


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