The Next Seahawk

The NFL draft is under three weeks away. Thanks to their (lousy) 4-12 finish, the Seahawks has the #4 pick, after Detroit, St. Louis, and Kansas City.

The Lions are expected to take the top QB in the draft, Matthew Stafford, but many commentators I read expect them to do something smarter, like take the top offensive tackle, Jason Smith, or trade down to get more picks. The problem with trading down is not deciding you want to do it, but finding someone to take the other side of the trade. Draft picks and number-one-overall-pick deals are very expensive, and return on investment is far from a sure thing (especially if the player picked is a quarterback).

If the Lions don't take Jason Smith, the Rams almost certainly will at #2. They just parted ways with future-Hall-of-Famer left tackle Orlando Pace.

I don't think I've seen a mock draft that doesn't have linebacker Aaron Curry, the top defensive player, going to the Chiefs at #3. The only thing that could fowl this up for KC is if somebody trades ahead of them to pick Curry, but teams rarely demonstrate that much desperation for a linebacker.

This brings us to the Seahawks. Seattle has demonstrated some interest in Stafford, and picking Stafford makes a certain amount of sense, depending on how many more years Hasselbeck can play. They've also shown interest in Mark Sanchez, considered the second best quarterback in the draft.

I can't dismiss the possibility of the Seahawks taking a QB at #4, but I am skeptical that their interest in these guys isn't to promote the value of the pick to a team they might trade down with -- a team that is more desperate for a quarterback than Seattle is.

Unless Seattle can trade down, I expect them to draft offensive tackle Eugene Monroe (pictured) at #4. Future-Hall-of-Famer left tackle Walter Jones is going to be winding down his career in the next few years, and Hasselbeck (or any QB) isn't going to last long without some improvements to the Seahawks O-line. 2009 is has a great crop of offensive tackles (four expected to go in the first round), and next year well have better pickings at quarterback, so I'm told.

The worst case scenario for Seattle, by my reckoning, if the two tackles (Smith and Monroe) are picked first and second, KC still takes Curry, and nobody will trade up with the Seahawks. I think this is the situation most likely to have them end up with Stafford, or even WR Michael Crabtree.