January 17, 2010

Preliminary notes on the equilibrium vampire population

There is no question in my mind that there are vampires.  The question really should be how many vampires are there, and, as a corollary, what is the optimal strategy for a single vampire?  Essential considerations:
  • I believe the basic dynamics can be adequately modeled using a slightly modified Lotka-Volterra equilibrium model.
  • However, vampires can theoretically live forever.  This raises the stakes considerably for them.  Even apparently minor threats should be eliminated, as the present value of eternal life is quite high. 
  • Threat #1:  Starvation.  If the Lotka-Volterra dynamics get out of hand, we will be up to our asses in vampires, and they will kill and eat every human being and then all starve to death.  So, to prevent this eventuality, each individual vampire has a strong incentive to kill any other vampire it comes across.
  • Threat #2:  Discovery.  While weak, humans are somewhat intelligent and can take countermeasures if a vampire is discovered.  It is therefore paramount that vampires be discrete, operating in areas where communications and mass media are undeveloped and the victims ill-informed about vampires.  It also provides a strong incentive to kill any vampires that appear not to be sufficiently discrete.  After all, the best defense is to be so obscure that no one believes you even exist.
  • Threat #3:  Other vampires.  Since Threats #1 and #2 both give vampires huge incentives to kill other vampires, it follows that the most serious threat to vampires is other vampires.  Since vampires are the greatest threat to vampires, this gives any one vampire significant additional incentive to kill other vampires.
Therefore, the vampire population is likely to be significantly lower than the Lotka-Volterra prediction.  This, in turn, leads to an overabundance of humans, and the problems resulting from that are evident.

5 Comments:

Blogger JAB said...

I don't think we can rely solely on mathematical models without vampirical evidence.

January 18, 2010 at 11:46 AM  
Blogger VMM said...

The Lotka-Volterra model is the wrong model, because Vampires don't reproduce through normal biological means.

January 18, 2010 at 4:07 PM  
Blogger The Front said...

As long as the rate of reproduction falls within the range of "normal biological means" it shouldn't be a problem. I'm guessing their reproductive rate is about the same as for other complex top-predators - e.g., female killer whales will typically have five calves over their 50-year lifespan . I suspect the attrition is also roughly analogous, although this is of course dependent on future research.

January 18, 2010 at 6:27 PM  
Blogger The Sum of All Monkeys said...

I would submit that vampires do reproduce through a close analog to biological means.

Vampire literature is pretty clear on the idea that freshly made vampires require a lot of attention and supervision for them to survive.

Of their many offspring, only a few survive to establish themselves as "breeders" of their own.

This also applies to Old Money, as well.

January 19, 2010 at 12:36 AM  
Blogger The Front said...

Vampires should be really, really rich, due to compounding. The value of $1,000, earning 8% per annum...

- after 30 years: $10,063
- after 50 years: $46,902
- after 100 years: $2,199,761

Benjamin Franklin understood this well, although his views on vampires have not been passed down.

January 19, 2010 at 10:39 PM  

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