February 25, 2004

NEW ICE AGE IMPROBABLE

All that Schwartz and Randall did was to investigate the "worst-case" possible events, those that are highly unlikely to happen but, if they did happen, would be catastrophic, especially in their impacts on U.S. military operations -- "low probability, high impact" events, as they are known in the futurological world.

What are some other "low probability, high impact" events that should be studied?

[THE 2010 JAMIE BOLLENBACH RETROSPECTIVE AT THE SF MUSEUM OF MODERN ART-This should be studied carefully.

Also, the probability of self-replicating nanobots taking over the planet accidently; that GMO foods will create a monoculture of major foodstuffs that can be wiped out in months by a genetically engineered organism designed for another purpose; the date, of course, robots will create over 90% of goods and services; the date that increasing economic and power disparities in the US will create conditions more than 50% likely to erupt in civil war. -PWP]

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