Bloop, Bloop, Bloop

I've been suspecting that something of a collapse in Bush's support was possible, after a year at just above 50%, the failures and lies are adding up.

New Harris poll has Bush approval at 40%, a steep drop and a record low.

You would expect that after 50% disapproval, and considering the election, further declines would be harder going. So will it stabilize or go even lower? Remember at least 10% or so of this total disapproval is coming directly from Bush's traditional supporters, who were gained mostly through the war on terror language, and I suspect being lost as his war rationale - and false reputation for straight-talkin'- grows more and more empty.

But I think it can drop more. On one hand, right-wingers, like progressives, are around 25-30% of the population. They won't move until they're drafted.

But I think we may see a slow decline to around 34-37% approval in coming months. Already one poll from 8-16 has him at 36% approval; Rasmussen tracking has him at 45%. (Good general discussion here at the Wash. Post.) This severely weakens him politically, and sets up interesting possibilities for 2006.

By way of comparison, Bill Clinton, at the height of the impeachment scandal, had 63% approval, by Gallup's measure. With Bush dipping into the 30s, on not just Iraq but Social Security, Energy, Terry Shiavo, and even No Child Taken Along (large majority now opposing it's provisions) it's a description of a politically impotent presidency, in spite of Congressional and judicial majorities. In particular, dissenters in his own party can now defy the administration at will, and in fact have an increasingly strong incentive to do so as Bush sinks.

This is all barring, of course, things happening.