Senate in Striking Distance

Rasmussen Reports: Senate is in full toss-up mode. This is notable because Rasmussen consistently reports between 3 and 7 percent more support for Bush than almost any other independent poll (not ideology so much as question design). Also, Bush's bump from last week's 9/11 speech, noted in several other polls, quickly evaporated. (Rasmussen is particularly valuable for it's daily polling - trends are easy to watch.)

The battle for control of the U.S. Senate is getting closer—much closer. Little more than a week ago, our Balance of Power summary showed the Republicans leading 50-45 with five states in the Toss-Up category. Today, Rasmussen Reports is changing three races from “Toss-Up” to “Leans Democrat.” As a result, Rasmussen Reports now rates 49 seats as Republican or Leans Republican while 48 seats are rated as Democrat or Leans Democrat (see State-by-State Summary). There are now just three states in the Toss-Up category--Tennessee, New Jersey, and Missouri.

Today’s changes all involve Republican incumbents who have been struggling all year. In Montana, Senator Conrad Burns (R) has fallen behind Jon Tester (D). Rhode Island Senator Lincoln Chafee (R) survived his primary but starts the General Election as a decided underdog. Sherrod Brown (D) is enjoying a growing lead over Ohio Senator Mike DeWine (R).

Four other seats are now ranked as “Leans Democrat”—Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Maryland, and Michigan.

Virginia is the only state rated as “Leans Republican.”

Related news: no blue-on-blue political violence in Washington State: in spite of her awkward war vote, Cantwell got a full third more votes than McGavick - around Bellevue, Reichart the Republican has a full-on race; his fundraiser with Turd Blossom last week may have helped persuade most - by a percent or two - Eastsiders to pick up a Democratic ballot.

Noted: this was the first run of the party-restricted ballots in Washington State.

I was against restricted primaries in college, I'm against them now. There is still too much machine influence, and this has produced a string of tepid, disconnected insiders.

The public feels cheated, and rightly so. It is a significant erosion of democracy, distancing the people from their government even further.