The Toughest Position to Fill
Dr. X posts this from Camp Quarterback:
"(As a reminder, IAYPA is a metric I developed, roughly simultaneously with the estimable Alan Barra, in the late 80s. It take yards-per-attempt - a metric highly correlated with winning - and adjusts for interceptions, which are costly. How costly? Football Outsiders thinks 35-45 yards. Sportsquant figures 4.35 points - basically an interception is a bit like a negative field goal. That counts for 4.35 points...but I digress. The point is, quarterbacks who don't throw a lot of interceptions are, all else equal, much more valuable than quarterbacks that do. IAYPA imputes a 50-yard penalty for each interception.)
"I haven't written much about IAYPA this season, despite the Laird's earnest pleas, because there really hasn't been much to say. The Patriots (Interception-Adjusted Yards-per-Attempt: 8.4) are #1...shocking! The Rams (2.3) are the worst in the League...you don't say!
"In fact, despite what they say about this being a quarterback's league, etc. etc., there is not much dispersion. YTD there are only six teams one or more standard deviation below the mean - Chicago (3.7), Buffalo (3.6), the Vikings (3.6), the Saints (3.5), the 49ers (2.6), and the Rams.
"And there are only three that are more than one standard deviation above the mean - the Patriots, the Colts (6.9), and Tampa Bay (7.3), riding the Garcia-Gruden West Coast Offense Mind-Meld.
"So, here are a few somewhat random mid-season awards for the rest:
"- Most-hated quarterback who really doesn't suck: I thought of Eli Manning (4.4 vs. League average of 5.0), but Donovan McNabb is the most deserving. He ranks 6th in the NFL in IAYPA, and 11th in passer rating, despite being sacked a league-leading 25 times.
"- Better than he looks: Jason Campbell of the Redskins ranks 22nd in passer rating, but 13th in IAYPA. He's only thrown five INTs this season (league average of 7). Washington is getting very solid play at the QB position.
"- Worse than he looks: Sorry, but Jon Kitna is not nearly as good as he looks. His passer rating of 89 looks good, but an interception per game takes the luster out of his numbers. He ranks 9th in passer rating, but 18th in IAYPA.
"- Best QB by Committee: Somehow, the Carolina Panthers have achieved an IAYPA of 5.2 despite injuries to both the starter (Delhomme) and the backup (David Carr). Testaverde started the Arizona game, threw for 206 yards, and had no interceptions. Nice.
"- Best young turk: Romo (6.1). Peter King is a fool - Romo bears no resemblance to Tom Brady. For example, just to cite one or two things, Brady leads the league in yards, touchdowns, rating, and IAYPA. Romo does not. And Romo throws a lot of picks (9 vs. Brady's 2) - his IAYPA is still high because he is throwing downfield every time, which I admit is a good thing. Runners-up, Schaub (6.0) and Garrard (5.9).
"- The Unsolved Mystery Award: Who is wearing Drew Brees's (3.5) uniform? The 49ers and Rams have worse IAYPAs, but their offensive lines are unable to protect the quarterback, with each team giving up 24 sacks so far. So hasty decision making is...understandable. Brees, by contrast, has only been sacked 4 times, yet after being a top IAYPA performer in the past, has severely regressed - he's thrown 10 picks already (vs. 11 all of last year).
"And what about the big star, Brian Griese? Oh, let him have his day in the sun. Griese's an average NFL quarterback. In his career he's put up some impressive yardage numbers (e.g., 247 yards/game for the Broncos in 2002). But in most years (2000 being the stellar exception) he's thrown too many interceptions to be considered an elite (or even good) quarterback. The only really great quarterback who's thrown a lot of interceptions in the modern era is Favre. Griese's 3.4% career INT rate almost exactly matches Favre's 3.3%, but, of course, Griese does not have the offsetting positive accomplishments. In any case, his INT rate is nowhere near the lifetime marks achieved by really good players like Brady (2.4%) and P. Manning (2.8%).
"But it is never too late for redemption. The ball will be in his hands Sunday...let his enemies tremble!"
posted by Latouche at Large at 6:29 PM
2 Comments:
An enjoyable post, with two somewhat snarky comments:
1) I'm sorry, but what of our dear Seahawks? I could give a fermenting fig for Chicago, who is merely an ursine lump in the way. I have decided to forgive Hasselbeck for his momentary, curse-bringing stupidity (MCBS rating of 3.7). We can be generous: the Democratic Party has a far better record in Washington State recently than the Seahawks, he has paid his debt by two deeply embarrassing games, suffering the loss of Mack Strong and Chuck Darby, and he at least has returned to form, even if the line couldn't stop a Seattle beat cop for arresting Alexander mid-rush for jaywalking.
The whole incident is simply evidence that anything W touches, like Midas in reverse, turns to poo.
2) While the IAYPA is an interesting and impressive statistic, there is a certain nature to sports statistics of this type which can best be described by using a similar phrase to describe our masthead figure -
"Saruman had a EASCA (EVIL-ADJUSTED SPELL CAST ATTEMPT) of 4.2, until Isengard brought in Bill Belichick."
Dr. X posts this from the IAYPA-torium:
"What is turned to poo cannot be unturned. I loved them once, but never again.
"To be fair, Hasselbeck is playing very well, and ranks 9th ytd on IAYPA. He is a very good quarterback - he's in the top-10 year-in and year-out, and doesn't have very good receivers. Put a Randy Moss or Terrell Owens on that team and Peter King would be comparing Mr. H to Unitas and Montana.
"IAYPA's fun because it's easy to compute and really does add informaiton. Its biggest limitation is that it doesn't take situation into account. A quarterback who has a hail-Mary picked off at the end of a half gets the same penalty as a guy who, deep in his own territory, throws a pick in the flat that's run back for a touchdown. The first play costs you nothing, the second one is -7 points. But over time those things tend to balance out, I believe.
"The other thing I've learned from this is that football is a team sport. The guys at the top of the ratings (except McNabb) don't get sacked much. The consistently high IAYPAs generally come from people like Montana and Young, who had someone to throw to.
"So I think the most interesting cases are the ones like McNabb, where the guy gets no protection, has no marquee receivers (what about Owens? ok, no sane marquee receivers), and still is completing passes downfield with few turnovers.
"Alan Barra once wrote in Salon that that Rush Limbaugh was right, McNabb was a disappointment as a pro because the Eagles didn't score enough points. I strongly disagree. McNabb has consistently passed effectively, despite playing some games in a body cast.
"If the Patriots needed a replacement for Brady, and McNabb were available, I suspect the Lich of Foxboro would be happy to employ him.
"One last thing - Drew Brees has not been sacked much, but his offensive line is apparently terrible. See this article from Football Outsiders, which basically says over and over again, 'oh God, these guys suck.' Even so, Brees should be throwing it away more, and to the other team less."
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