The First Titan

Dr. X posts this from the press box at Forbes Field:

"Another book came in from the garage tonight...The Unforgettable Season, by G.H. Fleming. Hardcover edition. Got it for $5 in a Harvard Square bookshop, ca. 1984.

"We learn many things from history. This book teaches us that even greatness is fleeting. Take, for example, the men who played in the greatest pennant race that ever was, the battle for the 1908 National League championship (which this volume chronicles). They fought like heroes and re-wrote the record books, but today, not one schoolchild in five can tell you what a hitter Turkey Mike Donlin was, or remember the name of the The Peerless Leader.

"They were forgotten a long time ago. History rushed them off the stage. With the introduction of the live ball, batting statistics exploded, and the statistically unsophisticated attributed this to an improvement in the general quality of play. As a child I read baseball books that denigrated the Dead Ball Heroes, mocking Home Run Baker for his anemic output (relative to what came after). To the scotch-swilling, cigar-chomping sportswriters of the 50s and 60s, the players of 1908 were Cro-Magnon predecessors to the fully-evolved likes of Ruth, with his 60 homers, and The Rajah, he of the .358 career batting average.

"Today, coming up on the 100th anniversary of that remarkable pennant race, perhaps we can do a little better. Thanks to the advent of modern sabermetrics we can appreciate the quality of their play. We know now that Nap Lajoie was a real ballplayer, not just a popular one. We know Tinker-to-Evers-to-Chance was not just a fun bit of doggerel, but an accurate characterization of one of the finest infields that ever played.

"Alas, rehabilitation can only go so far, and with each passing decade the pioneers of the Dead Ball Era face tougher competition on the all-time lists. With each decade comes a new wave of retirees and Hall of Fame candidates, vying for their place on the stage. The Dead Ball Era players are shunted further and further off to the side. Perhaps it is right and natural, then, to let their memory fade.

"Except for one.

"Bill James, the Galileo of modern statistical baseball research, recently published a list of the greatest players in history (according to his methods):

"Player (Last Year Played)
"c - Berra (1965)
"1b - Gehrig (1939)
"2b - Morgan (1984)
"3b - Schmidt (1989)
"ss - Wagner (1917)
"lf - Williams (1960)
"cf - Mays (1973)
"rf - Ruth (1935)

"There is one man left from the Dead Ball Era, a John Peter ("Honus") Wagner. Big German guy: 5'-11", 200 lbs. Bow-legged.

"He hit like a beast. He led the League in total bases from 1906-1909, and won the 1911 batting title (at age 37). Stolen bases? He led the League five times. Then there was that time he got on base, stole second, stole third, and then stole home. Actually, there were three of those times.

"Upon close analysis, however, his stats turn out to be deceptive. He was better than that. Modern baseball analysts compute a statistic they call Offensive Winning % - it represents the expected Won-Loss % of a lineup composed entirely of that player. In the 14 years of his career for which this has been calculated at Baseball Reference, Wagner was #1 in the National League 7 times, #2 twice, and #3 twice. That is to say, for most of his career as a full-time player, Wagner was arguably the best offensive player in the National League.

"Which is pretty good considering he was also, arguably, the best defensive player in baseball. We know he could play every position, because he did. Statistically, we can't bring quite the level of sophistication to fielding that we can to batting, but we can make some broad distinctions. This article offers many lists, including a ranking of shortstops on career FRAR (Fielding Runs Above Replacement) and FRAA (Fielding Runs Above Average). On the former, Wagner is #3, one slot above Ozzie Smith. On the latter, he ranks #6, two slots below Mark Belanger. Bill James rated Wagner's defense as A+ using his Defensive Win Shares system, in the top 16 of all time.

"So that's what you get - the best hitter in the National League for most of his career, who fields about as well as the best purely defensive shortstops who ever played.

"None of this was a secret, back in the day. Babe Ruth said Wagner was the best right-handed hitter he ever saw. Bill Klem, who umpired everyone on James's list except Morgan and Schmidt, thought Wagner was the best. In 1915 Ty Cobb - not regarded as a humble or generous man - called Wagner 'the greatest ball player that ever lived.'

"Perhaps someone, someday, will replace him on James' list. A-Rod has his advocates, and I imagine the 54 home runs last season will help his case. But returning to the Sabermetric stats - Wagner led the league in offensive win % seven time in 14 years. A-Rod has played nine seasons and led the league just once. Call me when he has six more.

"The fine new book It Ain't Over 'Til It's Over includes a chapter on the 1908 pennant race. The authors are at pains to educate us on what a different world these men played in. '[T]he players of the early 20th century,' they say, 'prided themselves on their hard-bitten, take-no-prisoners ethos and in their later years would go out of their way to call those who came after them effete...'

"You got a problem with that?


"Honus Wagner, 100 years on, we salute you."