Behind New Hampshire
Hilary Clinton's temporary recapture of the media darling lead from New Hampshire (where she won a stunning upset over Barack Obama - er, 9 delegates to 9 delegates,) is looking thin.
The Rasmussen national daily Presidential tracking poll - and you can usually at least trust the direction of a tracking poll - has Clinton with 40%, up one point nationally since New Hampshire. Obama has 35%, up 10 points nationally in the last week. Edwards has taken something of a hit, losing 6 to 14%.
With a set of a best ham-fisted and at worst coded racially-tinged slights in the last week, the Clinton campaign is only not in trouble if you believe that most of the other candidate's voters will skew to her as they drop out.
I'm on the Barack wagon. It boils down to a judgment that Barack's intellectual heft, personal story, and heart-stirring eloquence will create the broadest possible American coalition for a powerful, progressive, post-Bush political agenda. Edwards does have more carefully developed policies (comprehensive health care and carbon taxes, for example) , and for that matter, I will support Hilary in the general, strongly, if she wins.
An endorsement this week had an interesting phrase: Barack Obama has a "wide soul." So does America, at it's best. And it needs to be reminded of this, even with words, if the fear-mongering, back-room deals, flapping flags and mathematical formulae don't work out.
posted by JAB at 3:15 PM
5 Comments:
And all this time I just liked Obama because he smokes.
Every Sunday I try and listen to On the Media on NPR, and the best theory they had was this:
One of the things that prevented an Obama upset was that in the days leading up to the vote the press was licking it's collective wolflike chops, hoping to see her loose.
So it turns out that not only is a press endorsement turning into the kiss of death, but a press dis-endorsement will apparently boost you in the polls.
I wish I could share your enthusiasm, but after examining the polls, it appears Clinton is surging, and leading in every poll but South Carolina's. My hope at this point is that they don't alienate each other to such a degree that she will not offer him the veep, or he won't accept.
Still, look at the bright side: these internecine struggles are nothing compared to those going on the side of the Enemy. It's gonna get nasty over there in Reagan-fantasy-land, and I'm gonna make popcorn and enjoy the show.
TPM posted two new national polls tonight, one showing at 14 point Obama bump since December, and another no gain, while Clinton only stayed even or lost support relative to Obama. Clinton is still leading the January national polls, but her lead over Obama seems to be shrinking, rather than surging.
The big contradiction is between USA Today/Gallup's January poll, now even at 33 each for a major Clinton loss since December, and the CNN poll, which does a significant Clinton gain of 9 compared to Obama's gain of 6.
I believe the tracking poll, showing a shrinking Clinton lead from this week, has it right. Interesting though that the NYT poll has little total change in support since last month, but shows a clear shift in thinking about Obama in terms of electability.
We'll know more - a little bit more -after the South Carolina vote.
I'm inclined to believe Rasmussen
if for no other reason than I believe they showed Hillary losing by the smallest margin of any of the other polls.
And they show Obama gaining support, although not by much post-
NH.
They also show Hillary as having a good chance to be the next Kerry. i.e. the "Who in their right mind thought that schmuck could win?" candidate.
Still, as the L of M points out, the Republicans have just started to trade body blows. We'll see how good they look like down the road.
By the way, I found this tidbit on Rasmussen:
"RasmussenMarkets.com also provides a platform for you to create your own Fantasy Politics League for your office, club, or blog. Learn more."
Who among us (who isn't expecting a child in 4 days) wants to set this up?
Post a Comment
<< Home