Ted Stevens Makes Andy Rooney Look like Justin Timberlake

Senator Ted Stevens,(P)* Left, of Alaska.

A new Rasmussen poll, which usually skews a bit right, has a dead heat between Mark Begich, Anchorage Mayor with perfect hair forever, and Ted Stevens, a *Pre-Cambrian life form. Interesting analysis from a commenter on TPM:

From the write-up:

Stevens is supported by just 71% of GOP voters while Begich attracts 78% of Democrats. Begich leads by 22 percentage points among unaffiliated voters.

Stevens is viewed favorably by 50% of the state’s voters while 47% have an unfavorable opinion. Begich earns favorable reviews from 56% while just 35% have an unfavorable opinion.

Among unaffiliated voters, Begich is viewed favorably by 66%, Stevens by 42%.

That's interesting, to say the least. It looks as if most Alaskans have made up there minds about Stevens, which is hardly surprising. But his unfavorable rating is astronomically high for a sitting senator, and is probably more important than the horse-race number at this early stage of the race. It seems to me unlikely that he'll be able to win back those voters come November. So all Begich has to do is keep his own unfavorables down, and win over a few voters.

Also worth noting that this yet another instance in which the Democratic Party would benefit immeasurably from having Obama at the top of their ticket. The man has no chance of carrying Alaska. But participation in the state's caucus jumped from 700 to 8,600 this year. As of the beginning of March, there were roughly 470,000 registered votes in Alaska: 118k GOP, 71k Dems, the rest minor parties and unaffiliated. In a year, the GOP has added about 3,500 voters, and the Dems about 4,500. But almost all of the GOP gains came last year, and almost all of the Democratic gains since January.

Alaskans vote in large numbers - that's what happens when your continued economic viability is entirely dependent on governmental largesse. In 2004, the presidential election and closely-fought senate battle between Murkowski and Knowles drew 308k voters to the polls. Murkowski squeaked past Knowles, 150k to 140k. That was a remarkable result - it meant that some 40k Bush voters declined to vote for Murkowski, and almost 30k voters who didn't support Kerry did cast their ballots for Knowles.

The keys, it seems, are Alaska's independent voters, and juicing Democratic turnout. And suddenly, the presidential race looms large. McCain is none-too-popular in Alaska. He opposes drilling in ANWR, ceding the most popular issue with which the GOP has bludgeoned the Democratic Party in Alaska. He got creamed in the caucuses, finishing fourth behind Romney, Huckabee, and Ron Paul. And while the GOP base will eventually fall into line, his heterodoxy will alienate some of the crucial independent voters. The question is, will they stay home from the polls entirely, or will there be an alternative candidate to draw them to the polls?

And actually, we have an answer. In SurveyUSA's general election match up, we find McCain leading Obama, 48-43. We also find him leading Clinton, 56-34. Now if you were Chuck Schumer, who would you rather see at the head of the ticket?

Also, we should note the National Republican Senatorial Committee dirt on Begich press release - it exposes the $8000 he owes on a tax thing. This is also the only item on the Begichbaggage.com site - Videos are coming soon! it promises. Videos of the tax lien? Wow. That's knock out those federal felony charges coming against Stevens.

Keep it up, Republican party.