How He Blew It

The votes aren't counted, and a miracle could happen, but the Palin veep pick may go down in history as the biggest single mistake by a presidential candidate in U.S. history.

All of this is even without the drip-drip-drip of (to put it politely) "surprises" that have come to light in the past 72 hours. In fact, these may be a blessing in disguise, but only if they result in her withdrawing her candidacy within the next week.

Here's a little U.S. Presidential Politics 101: the time for groveling to your base is before you secure the nomination. Afterward, you need to appeal to the center that actually make up a majority of the people whose votes you are courting. (You know, John, the Americans who used to respect you.)

Secondly, and this is actually more important: when presented with a vigorous opponent who is young, untested, calls for change, and demands that things be shaken up, the posture that will win you the election is to be mature, tested, conservative, and predictable. Many people fear change and unpredictability, and faced with the decision on election day, will go with what they know, even if they don't like it very much (Exhibit A: Bush vs. Kerry).

What he needed to do was convince the majority of Americans that the McCain they saw in the primaries was a hallucination, and deny that he was ever beholden to the Republican base. Then, pick a fellow elder statesman (like Lieberman) or boring white-guy (like Pawlenty) to run with. He wouldn't have surged in the polls in August, but he didn't need to. He just needed to be patient, and let the center return to him as his campaign gently (gently!) stokes doubts and anxieties about the new guy.

If Obama wins this thing, he deserves a lot of credit. But John McCain has been a big help.