Electio-gasmic

From Princeton Election Consortium, a left-leaning but rigorous analysis of state polls based on the likelyhood of which states electoral votes will go. Sam Wang is starting to call it:

Look at the probability distribution, which is more spiky every day. This reflects the fact that based on current state polls (medians and original data), only four states have win probabilities between 5% and 95% : West Virginia (Obama win probability 12%), North Carolina (65%), Missouri (69%), and Ohio (93%). Assuming OH goes to Obama and WV goes to McCain, there are four major permutations formed by who wins NC (15 EV) and OH (20 EV). These possibilities contain a whopping 74% of the total distribution...

Which is another way of saying the McCain campaign has a very small likelyhood of success. Compare the 2004 Kerry Electoral Vote trend to the Obama one.

Notes: I am sticking with two gut predictions- 1) the most likely outcome is a significant Obama landslide, and 2) Alaska, in spite of the Palin nomination, may still go for Obama, at least if #1 happens. I should point out that #2 has little basis, currently the polls are 55-40 and 55-38 for McCain. It's a guesshopetimate based on a sense from reading the financial crisis, the likely victory of two Ds and a growing backlash in Alaska to Palin's allowing the McCain campaign to get between her various investigations and the Alaska public. Begich is back in the lead against Stevens. A note in this Ivan Moore poll says that Alaskans gave the nod to Biden in the debate. And Alaskans just love Outsiders bossing them around, he added sarcastically.

The last Obama rally in Alaska got about 1500 people- huge for that state, and the Obama campaign had all but pulled out. The last Palin rally was set up for about that many, and 200 people showed up.

Another surprise may be brewing in West Virginia, which has two polls showing an Obama lead, and I'm guessing may have something to do with the secret efforts of Isengard.Gov behind the scenes, as a key member of our crack team is there on the ground.

Props, BTW, to the Laird, for finding the key dynamic in the race: riskiness. McCain decided to go risky, far too early (believe me, you want to click on this link), noting the ugly mood of America about Republicans, and trying too late to reprove that he is some kind of maverick, while Obama has made huge strides in building the feeling of personal steadiness. McCain himself supplied the perfect phrase, a steady hand on the tiller, for Obama.

It's Ahab vs. Starbuck. You know what happens when you vote Ahab.