The Best Quarterback in Football

Two men stand apart from the rest of the League at the quarterback position. One is a gutsy, resourceful quarterback who made his reputation in Green Bay. And the other is Brett Favre. As of tonight, the IAYPA standings are:

1. Rodgers, GB - 7.6
2. Favre, MIN - 7.5
3. Rivers, SD - 7.2
4. Brees, NO - 7.2
5. Manning, IND - 7.0
6. Brady, NE - 7.0

In his second full year in the League, Aaron Rodgers has played the quarterback position better than a number of men with bigger reputations. Now, you might have heard that Favre is this year's MVP, or close to it, how he cures lepers, casts out demons, and works miracles (like giving the Vikings a winning record).

But Rodgers is slightly better than Favre on IAYPA, and no one else is seriously challenging for League leadership. So let's dig into this a little further.

Q: Who has passed for more yards?
A: Rodgers.

Q: Who has thrown more touchdown passes?
A: Rodgers.

Q: Who has a better offensive line?
A: Favre. The Packers' line, says one beat writer, is a "borderline disaster" this year. Rodgers has been sacked 44 times, Favre 21. Now some say a portion of those sacks (1/4? 1/3?) are Rodgers' fault, because he's scrambling, holding the ball, whatever. Could be...but going backwards six yards is a hell of a lot better than turning possession over to the other other team. A bad quarterback hurries the throw, a good quarterback pulls the ball down and takes the sack.

Q: Beyond that, who has a better supporting cast?
A: Favre, and it's not close.

Q: Would the Vikings be better, worse, or about the same with Rogers?
A: Probably about the same - Rodgers is confident, throws well and, like Favre, has mastered the "hand-off".

Q: Would the Packers be better, worse, or about the same with Favre?
A: Probably worse (he's not mobile enough or durable enough to survive with that line).

What does Rodgers have to do to get some recognition here? Do it from a wheelchair? Play while balancing a duck on his head?

But the clincher for me is: this is the best season of Favre's life.

He's always been a very effective quarterback - better than, say, Terry Bradshaw, perhaps roughly as skilled as Donovan McNabb. But his career has been marred by his propensity for mistakes. Time and again Favre has given the other team an opportunity by throwing the ball to them:

Year Int
1992 13
1993 24
1994 14
1995 13
1996 13
1997 16
1998 23
1999 23
2000 16
2001 15
2002 16
2003 21
2004 17
2005 29
2006 18
2007 15
2008 22
2009 (ytd) 3
92-'08 Avg. 17

Full marks for his fine performance this year - but it is utterly out of character for him. Favre has had six seasons with more than 20 interceptions. John Elway, in fifteen years, had just one. Ken Anderson, likewise. Peyton Manning has had two so far - 1998 (his rookie year) and 2001. But there are even a few players whose worst seasons were better than Favre's average season:

Most interceptions in a season (career)

• Joe Montana, 16
• Steve Young, 16
• Roger Staubach, 16
• Tom Brady, 14

And, of course, Aaron Rodgers (13).

Rodgers stands atop the League tables performing very much as he did last year, throwing the ball downfield and avoiding the big mistake. Favre, whose season has been almost as good, has done it with a better supporting cast and the best decisionmaking of his career. There's no question in my mind who is the better quarterback.


Addendum

In San Francisco, the decision was made a while back to replace the effective but unspectacular Shaun Hill with draft bust Alex Smith. 49ers offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye loves Smith's play. Since the switch, “the quarterback play has been very good and at times it has even tilted toward being outstanding.”

I guess I missed that part. Comparing Hill and Smith is pretty easy - both have 155 attempts year-to-date. Hill has thrown for 943 yards with two interceptions (5.4 IAYPA, about the League average), while Smith has thrown for 1,034 with seven interceptions (4.4, down in the Jay Cutler / Trent Edwards division). And Smith has had Crabtree on the field, while Hill did not.

Well, you might say, that's just statistics. What about winning? Well, Hill is 10-6 as a 49ers starter, 3-3 this year. Smith has a lousy 12-22 record as a starter over the years (admittedly playing hurt and on bad teams) and is 1-3 since the switch. From what I can see, Hill is an average but unspectacular NFL quarterback, a solid player who can lead an average team to a .500 record. Smith, based on what he has done on the field this year and over his career, is not that good.

One other odd thing about all this. In 2005 the 49ers had the first pick overall in the draft, and used it to pick Smith. They had been considering another guy, a player out of Cal who ended up slipping all the way to 24, before the Packers picked him up. Aaron Rodgers.

At long last, a little respect, please.