December 10, 2016

IAYPA update, regular season about over edition

Super Epic
  • Matt Ryan, ATL, 8.4 - As predicted in October, he has regressed to the mean somewhat.  But his mean is apparently the best in the NFL (also #1 in passer rating).  He's always been competent (career passer rating of 92.7) but cut his interception rate (1.7% ytd vs. 2.3% career) and increased his yards per attempt and...voila.
  • Dak Prescott, DAL, 8.0 - Dak.  Is.  Real.
  • Tom Brady, NE, 8.0 - Always in this group.  Always.
Epic
  • Brian Hoyer, CHI, 7.2 -  Chicago absolutely does not deserve this.
  • Kirk Cousins, WSH, 7.2
  • Russell Wilson, SEA, 7.2 - Still right there, tends to get better as season goes on.
  • Andy Dalton, CIN, 7.0 
  • Marcus Mariota, TEN, 6.9 - Good last year too, improving.  New guy is legit.
  • Matthew Stafford, DET, 6.9  
  • Drew Brees, NO, 6.7 
  • Andrew Luck, IND, 6.7  
Elite
  • Cody Kessler, CLE, 6.6 
  • Alex Smith, KC, 6.5 - Oakland just got a quarterback this good and they are consumed with joy.  Kansas City was 2-14 the year before Smith joined the team (along with Andy Reid).  Records since then (49ers record):  
    • 2013:  11-5 (12-4)
    • 2014:  9-7 (8-8)
    • 2015:  11-5 (5-11)
    • 2016 ytd:  10-3 (1-12)
There are two lessons here (three if you count "Jim Harbaugh is never a long-term solution"):

1)  YOUNG DOES NOT EQUAL PROMISING.  A proven quarterback in the NFL can, absent catastrophic injury, usually play until their late 30s.  A young player who does not have command of the position must either develop that command or wash out.  So if you want to get a few good years of quarterback play, you're much better off going with a 28 year-old with proven pocket skills vs. an early 20s guy with 'promise'.  

2)  AVERAGE IS UNDERRATED.  There simply are not enough competent people to play quarterback in the NFL.  Even though Alex Smith is only a bit above-average, the Kansas City Chiefs are a good football team, a winner in a tough League, a quarterback's League.  The Smith deal gave them a good, consistent, professional quarterback who has done well every year, without prima donna behavior or off-the-field distractions.

You can win with Alex Smith.  But with Colin Karpernick, Blake Bortles, Carson Wentz...not so much.  Every team below this paragraph, if offered Alex Smith today for a 1st round draft pick, would take him in a heartbeat (ok, maybe not San Diego or Carolina...but everyone else).

Continuing...
  • Derek Carr, OA, 6.5 - Good player, but fell down badly in KC last week.
  • Ben Roethlisberger, PIT, 6.4 
  • Sam Bradford, MIN, 6.4 - Bradford is 29...a very valuable kind of average player.
  • Trevor Siemian, DEN, 6.3 - The median NFL quarterback.
Near-Elite
  • Philip Rivers, SD, 6.2 - Aging gracefully is the best revenge.  Well, very good in any case.
  • Aaron Rodgers, GB, 6.1 - Aaron Rodgers is comparable to Ryan Tannehill and Colin Kaepernick on this metric.  Mull that one over.
  • Ryan Tannehill, MIA, 6.1
  • Colin Kaepernick, SF, 6.1 - Suck it, haters.  THESE LITTLE TOWN BLUES... (link)
  • Cam Newton, CAR, 6.0 - Cam Newton is comparable to Ryan Tannehill and Colin Kaepernick on this metric.  Mull that one over.
  • Jameis Winston, TB, 5.9 
  • Tyrod Taylor, BUF, 5.9
  • Carson Palmer, ARI, 5.8 - Carson Palmer is worse than Ryan Tannehill and Colin Kaepernick on this metric...
Emerging/Submerging
  • Eli Manning, NJG, 5.5
  • Joe Flacco, BAL, 5.4 - Been a long time since that playoff run now.
  • Carson Wentz, PHI, 5.2
  • Case Keenum, LA, 5.2
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick, NYJ, 4.8 - The Great Imposter.  Career IAYPA:  5.0.  Career passer rating:  79.9.  He is 34 years old.
  • Blake Bortles, JAX, 4.5
  • Brock Osweiler, HOU, 4.3 - 'Betting Against Brock', The Ringer (link)

2 Comments:

Blogger VMM said...

So, by elite you mean mediocre?

December 10, 2016 at 9:01 PM  
Blogger The Other Front said...

Elite means: If we don't pay this, we could lose him to Jacksonville!

December 11, 2016 at 6:49 AM  

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