The Fool Factor, or Tail Risk Haunts the Warriors Backcourt
The 2017-18 Warriors made various changes to their championship squad, but one of the most important was the addition of Nick Young. Young is a fool, but a fool who shoots extremely well. Here he is last night dialing long distance against two defenders:
(link)
The moment was indisputably swaggy, and apparently life with Nick Young is full of these. Steve Kerr, for whom Joy is an organizing principle, has good things to say about the perennially disappointing man-child:
Nick brings a joy to the game and to the team,” Kerr gushed after Monday’s 124-114 win over Denver. “He’s just one of the most care-free guys I’ve ever seen. He wears that joy on his face when he makes shots. He just loves playing basketball and gets it going a little bit. Our whole team enjoys watching that process. He’s great. A really fun guy to have on the team and he’s playing really well for us.
But is he Steve? IS HE?
Credit Where Credit is Due
Well...(mumbles under his breath), yes. Yes he is. There is a problem, but before we get to that, give credit where credit is due. Just after the halfway point, the Warriors have played 43 games. Steph Curry has been out a lot, missing 15 of those. Kevin Durant has been out a lot as well, missing 10. And the Warriors still lead the Association in winning percentage, sporting a record of 34-9. A local radio host marvels that "they're on pace to win 66 and they're not even trying."
Young has to get some credit for this. As much as I love Shaun Livingston, he cannot be a full-time backup because of his physical limitations. He gives you 16 minutes a game, but you don't want to push it. Also, despite his many virtues, Livingston has one major weakness: he will not shoot threes. Young is a great complement because his range is actually similar to Curry's, which makes it harder for the opposing defense to crowd the paint when the two-time MVP takes a breather. Curry has an effective shooting percentage this year of 60.8%, Klay Thompson is 58.1%, Young is 57.5%, so there's hardly any drop-off in shooting accuracy when he comes in.
Early in the season, Young didn't know the offense, but he seems to be getting the hang of it, and his cumulative +/- is now solidly positive (although -20 the past two games pulls it down a bit):
If you add Livingston and Young together you get a perfectly adequate third guard: 29 minutes a night, 12 points, 3 assists, 3 rebounds. Both are 6-7 and can defend (Livingston better than Young, obviously), and both create matchup problems against smaller opponents when the ball is in their hands (Young's threes, Livingston's midrange attack). It all adds up to a plus/minus of +198 season-to-date, so both men can claim a share of the team's success so far.
The Problem
I went back into the game-by-game data to investigate something I thought I was seeing with my own two eyes. The Warriors don't get blown out often, but, I thought, when things are going sideways Young always seems to be in the mix (Livingston, like Eliot's Macavity, is not there).
So I sorted each man's games by +/- score. What emerges is: from a +/- perspective Livingston and Young are the same player, except for one thing:
Tail risk. The bane of America's hedge fund managers, the angel of Victor Niederhoffer's destruction. Swaggy P is as good a team player as Sensible Shaun most of the time. But...six times this year Young has been a direct participant in regrettable incidents, unpleasant occurrences, mishaps, and misadventures that Livingston seems to have a knack for avoiding. Here is the same data visualized another way:
Young gets you range, but also the small but nonzero probability that his airheadedness will help turn that night's Warriors effort into the Poseidon Adventure.
Long ago, Seneca said "joy can only be attained by the wise." Be careful Mr. Kerr, be very careful.
Labels: TheLivingstonFiles
posted by The Other Front at 5:05 PM
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