Livingston bails out Curry, wins game 2 with key assist

Golden State’s championship experience saved the game tonight! Livingston securing the ball led to Iguodala's game-winning three.

— Earvin Magic Johnson (@MagicJohnson) June 3, 2019

Video - (link)

Hey Dad, what is 'old man strength'?

This

You're welcome, America

News outlets once again bury the lede as Shaun Livingston goes 4-6 and leads the team in plus/minus.

A study in excellence

Well, isn't is just typical of the hype nowadays. Steph Curry, who is not even in the top 20 in three point shooting percentage this year, gets all the attention just because he scored 51 points against the Wizards last night. In three quarters. With 23 of those points coming in the first quarter...and, at one point, 14 points in two minutes. So everyone gets all excited:




Lost amid all the chatter about this show-boating is the quiet excellence of Shaun Livingston, who in the first three games of the season has played a total of 48 minutes, and attempted 15 field goals.  He has made nine of those, which, combined with four made free throws on four attempts gives 22 points on 15 shots.

As the table below proves, he and Curry are virtually the same player so far this season:

This is the sort of thing that the tv shows won't tell you about, but is well-understand by sophisticated students of the game.


via GIPHY

Sure, I played there...

Shaun dishes on the team's upcoming game in Seattle after today's practice 🗣️ pic.twitter.com/JAzYRKscYi

— Golden State Warriors (@warriors) October 3, 2018

(The Warriors are Livingston's 10th NBA team...)

That time of the year again

As the Warriors begin camp, someone has posted this very fine informator on the skills of one S. Livingston.  Very nice.

The last hurrah

The probability of Shaun Livingston being a Warrior in August 2019: 10%

Shaun Livingston is a name often forgotten in the shuffle of the Warriors roster. But he’s been there from the beginning of this run and played a valuable role backing up both Steph Curry and Andre Iguodala. His veteran presence, basketball IQ, and reliable turnaround jumper have made him an underrated part of this dynasty.

But he’s the most likely casualty of the coming salary cap crunch. Only around $2m of his $8m 2019-20 salary is guaranteed. The Warriors will almost certainly stretch and waive that money to reduce their bills. With young players like new draft pick Jacob Evans, and possibly Patrick McCaw, waiting in the wings this is probably Livingston’s last hurrah with the team.

There is, of course, a chance he sticks around if others go. But even if Durant leaves, waiving Livingston’s final year salary will help the Warriors. That $8m may even be the difference between being in the luxury tax or not, and in that situation, the Warriors would be wise to duck under the line, as it would postpone any repeater tax penalties for at least another couple of years.

(link)

Shaun Livingston update

Missed two shots in the Finals, made 13.

Career totals so far:  Ten teams, 769 games, three rings.

See you next year.

(link)

Nice of you to notice

From The Ringer:

There’s a clear difference when Livingston is in the game instead of [the other bench] players. The Warriors have a net rating of plus-25.8 in the 23 minutes he has played with their four All-Stars in the playoffs, even higher than their net rating with Iguodala (plus-22.9 in 110 minutes). That number drops to plus-11.7 in 110 minutes with Looney. They play Golden State basketball when Livingston is the fifth option: All five players can handle the ball, make plays for others, and score, and everyone but Curry can comfortably switch screens and defend multiple positions. A lineup is only as strong as its weakest link in the playoffs, and there are no weak links when Livingston is the worst player.

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Our game is about joy and... CLEVELAND DELENDA EST

Another angle of Tristan Thompson throwing the ball in Draymond Green's face. pic.twitter.com/8rch3YbWjw

— RealGM (@RealGM) June 1, 2018

Game 1 - The Warriors' Plus/Minus leader in regulation is...

(link)


And...Shaun Livingston 4-4 from the field, 2-2 from the line.

Shaun, Iggy, and The Joker

"Strength in Numbers" has been the watchword of the Golden State Warriors since Steve Kerr took over.  One subtle aspect of Kerr's system (as originally designed) was that the Warriors would make the other team work when in their half court offense, methodically passing to the open man and shooting late in the clock.

"Wait," you astutely interject, "doesn't that lower their effective field goal percentage?"  Not really, because the person shooting in the last six seconds is probably a genius.  Back in 2015 John Schuhmann noted that:

Stephen Curry has an effective field goal percentage of 65.7 percent on shots in the last six seconds of the clock, highest among 173 players who have attempted at least 50 late-clock shots. He’s actually shot better in the last six seconds of the clock than he’s shot in the first 18. 

(He still does this.)

Come on pic.twitter.com/TCVQL77lVB

— Lifetime Laker Fan (@World_Wide_Wob) May 2, 2018

Kerr, I surmise, saw two benefits to playing late in the clock.  First, the longer a defense spends chasing Curry et al through screens, the more likely they are to make a mistake and give up a really good shot.  And second, defending like this for four quarters is going wear you out, and Kerr had a deeper bench than most.

So "Strength in Numbers" wasn't just a slogan, it was a smart way to attack the star-heavy NBA, a bit of democratic spirit in a game that often looks like European cycling, with its legions of domestiques.  In 2015 Kerr had deluxe domestiques, people like Marrise ("Mo Buckets") Speights and Leandro Barbosa, quality role players who could come in and either run up the score on the other team's bench or help run the other team's starters ragged.  But now...

The signing of Kevin Durant altered the deal.  To make way for the gigastar, the Warriors had to give up most their bench "Specials", retaining only Iguodala and Livingston.  The reason this wasn't a big problem in 2017 was that the Cavaliers were even more top-heavy than the Warriors.  After the Warriors took a 3-0 lead in the Finals, Baxter Holmes of ESPN reported that

Steve Kerr said he kept repeating the same message to his players.  "They're going to get tired," Kerr recalled saying, speaking of James and Irving. "Stay in front of them. Force them into outside shots, if you can. Fatigue will play a role."

But in 2018 fatigue caught up with the Warriors, too.  The platinum plated starters showed signs of wear and tear.  Durant, Curry, and Thompson lost significant time to injuries, and Green played with a bad shoulder through much of the season.  The bench suffered as well:  Iguodala, reportedly suffering from sore knees, often looked old and a step behind.  Livingston was his usual efficient self, but plays with a minutes restriction due to past injuries.  The result, as history now records, was disappointing 58-24 record, for a .707 winning percentage, only third-best in the NBA.

So I was interested to see what the Playoffs would bring.  I've been tracking Livingston and Iguodala's +/- scores.  Together they amount to a fifth All-Star on the team - accounting for 44 minutes per Playoff game between them, and bringing extreme levels of basketball intelligence to the proceedings (Bay Area broadcast Greg Papa calls them, with David West, "The Three Wise Men").  In the ten games so far, each player has given you a plus/minus of about +0.3 per minute on the floor.

Against New Orleans, the Warriors seemed to falter, and in the fourth game Kerr inserted Iguodala into the starting lineup, with spectacular results:

For these ten games, Iguodala is +81, 3rd on the team after Green and Durant.  Livingston, who plays about half as many minutes is +44.  (Not to beat a dead horse, but Nick Young is -14...)

So, as the real Warriors season gets underway, we have a team that in all probability cannot be beaten four times, so long as the top seven men remain healthy.  After that it gets very thin.  Beyond the All-Stars and the Three Wise Men we have point guard Quinn Cook, who started off this season getting waived by the Hawks out of training camp, and rookie Jordan Bell, who shows flashes of brilliance but has been slowed by injuries.

And beyond that, nothing but centers - Zaza Pachulia, Javale McGee, Kevon Looney, and Damian Jones...and, of course,  Nick Young.

NickYoung.

Nick. Young.

Nick Young, who is of no use to anyone except in a three point shooting contest where defense doesn't matter, a matchup where there's so much offensive talent on the floor that the rules of basketball logic no longer hold...

Like the series against the Rockets that starts Monday.

I am not ready for this.

The Fool Factor, or Tail Risk Haunts the Warriors Backcourt

The 2017-18 Warriors made various changes to their championship squad, but one of the most important was the addition of Nick Young.  Young is a fool, but a fool who shoots extremely well.  Here he is last night dialing long distance against two defenders:

Ending the quarter in style 😎 @swaggyp1 #BeforeTheLight (@nbcsauthentic and ESPN)

A post shared by Golden State Warriors (@warriors) on Jan 12, 2018 at 5:53pm PST

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The moment was indisputably swaggy, and apparently life with Nick Young is full of these.  Steve Kerr, for whom Joy is an organizing principle, has good things to say about the perennially disappointing man-child:

Nick brings a joy to the game and to the team,” Kerr gushed after Monday’s 124-114 win over Denver. “He’s just one of the most care-free guys I’ve ever seen. He wears that joy on his face when he makes shots. He just loves playing basketball and gets it going a little bit. Our whole team enjoys watching that process. He’s great. A really fun guy to have on the team and he’s playing really well for us.

But is he Steve?  IS HE?


Credit Where Credit is Due

Well...(mumbles under his breath), yes.  Yes he is.  There is a problem, but before we get to that,  give credit where credit is due.  Just after the halfway point, the Warriors have played 43 games.  Steph Curry has been out a lot, missing 15 of those.  Kevin Durant has been out a lot as well, missing 10.  And the Warriors still lead the Association in winning percentage, sporting a record of 34-9.  A local radio host marvels that "they're on pace to win 66 and they're not even trying."

Young has to get some credit for this.  As much as I love Shaun Livingston, he cannot be a full-time backup because of his physical limitations.  He gives you 16 minutes a game, but you don't want to push it.  Also, despite his many virtues, Livingston has one major weakness: he will not shoot threes.  Young is a great complement because his range is actually similar to Curry's, which makes it harder for the opposing defense to crowd the paint when the two-time MVP takes a breather.  Curry has an effective shooting percentage this year of 60.8%, Klay Thompson is 58.1%, Young is 57.5%, so there's hardly any drop-off in shooting accuracy when he comes in.

Early in the season, Young didn't know the offense, but he seems to be getting the hang of it, and his cumulative +/- is now solidly positive (although -20 the past two games pulls it down a bit):

If you add Livingston and Young together you get a perfectly adequate third guard:  29 minutes a night, 12 points, 3 assists, 3 rebounds.  Both are 6-7 and can defend (Livingston better than Young, obviously), and both create matchup problems against smaller opponents when the ball is in their hands (Young's threes, Livingston's midrange attack).  It all adds up to a plus/minus of +198 season-to-date, so both men can claim a share of the team's success so far.


The Problem

I went back into the game-by-game data to investigate something I thought I was seeing with my own two eyes.  The Warriors don't get blown out often, but, I thought, when things are going sideways Young always seems to be in the mix (Livingston, like Eliot's Macavity, is not there).

So I sorted each man's games by +/- score.  What emerges is: from a +/- perspective Livingston and Young are the same player, except for one thing:

Tail risk.  The bane of America's hedge fund managers, the angel of Victor Niederhoffer's destruction.  Swaggy P is as good a team player as Sensible Shaun most of the time.  But...six times this year Young has been a direct participant in regrettable incidents, unpleasant occurrences, mishaps, and misadventures that Livingston seems to have a knack for avoiding.  Here is the same data visualized another way:

Young gets you range, but also the small but nonzero probability that his airheadedness will help turn that night's Warriors effort into the Poseidon Adventure.




Long ago, Seneca said "joy can only be attained by the wise."  Be careful Mr. Kerr, be very careful.

Box score surrealism

A third of the way into the NBA season, and the Warriors are already quite banged up.  Tonight Curry, Green, Pachulia, and Young all had to convalesce.  Ordinarily, when a team loses an MVP and an All-Star it faces serious problems, but when the Warriors lose an MVP (Curry) and an All-Star (Green), they still have...an MVP (Durant) and an All-Star (Thompson).

Nevertheless, without Green and Curry they have to go to their bench, and the good news is that there is one.  I loved the mid-80s Celtics, but man, when the Hall of Famers sat down it got ugly fast.  Against the Lakers you had the likes of Greg Kite and Jerry Sichting squaring off against Mychal Thompson and Michael Cooper, and this did not lead to good outcomes.

The Warriors, by contrast, have an interesting bench full of high character role players.  They always play well, but you wonder how they'd do in real life, like if they were on a regular team?  Tonight we found out, as the Two-Star Warriors (just Durant and Thompson) were supplemented by the likes of Omri Casspi (7-9), David West (4-5), Jordan Bell (4-5), and Shaun Livingston (4-6) against the Mavericks.  That group collectively shot 19-25, or 76% from the field, Iguodala added ten assists, and the decimated Warriors won by 15.

This is nuts, just surreal.

Also:

Kevin Durant's last four games
-at Charlotte: 35 pts, 11 rebs, 10 asts, 2 blks, 13/28 FG
-at Detroit: 36 pts, 10 rebs, 7 asts, 5 blks, 12/23 FG
-vs Blazers: 28 pts, 9 rebs, 5 asts, 3 blks, 11/21 FG
-vs Mavericks: 36 pts, 11 rebs, 7 asts, 3 blks, 15/23 FG

— Anthony Slater (@anthonyVslater) December 15, 2017

I cannot describe how much happiness this brought me

Explain One Play: S Dot terrifies the Magic

Shaun Livingston frightened the Orlando Magic with an array of cuts and reads to help the Warriors win the Nov 13th, 2017 game.

 (link)

I wonder how Livingston's +/- compares to Young's...oh Lawd

Just another night at the office

With Curry out Livingston started tonight, went 6-12 from the field, 4-for-4 from the line. Six assists, +/- tied for second at +16.

.@ShaunLivingston was feelin’ it tonight 🙌 #DubNation pic.twitter.com/0Lrj0PIooS

— Golden State Warriors (@warriors) November 14, 2017

What happens if I try to steal it from the old guy?

👀 And that's your play of the night! 👀 @NBCSAuthentic pic.twitter.com/3fPig7tfA7

— Golden State Warriors (@warriors) November 12, 2017

The Ghost

Shaun Livingston's last two games:

• vs. Clippers 10/30 - 14 minutes, 8 points, +/- of 26 (#1 on team)
• vs. San Antonio 11/2 - 19 minutes,  0 points, +/- of 19 (#1 on team)

In other news, Steve Kerr endorses Gregg Popovich for higher office (link)

While Cleveland sleeps...

A post shared by Shaun Livingston (@sdot1414) on Sep 21, 2017 at 11:46am PDT