Undecideds for Kerry

"Cap'n" Cook from The Cook Political Report points out that polling ties have a significant number of undecideds, who as a rule do not favor incumbents - far, far from from it. This helps account for the risk of democractic overconfidence, a problem I last remember from 1996.

On other hand, note Krugman on Jeb Bush turning down independent audits of the voting machinge process in Florida.