Polls and Public Movement

This Annenberg poll in the NYT, on the perception of Bush involvement in the Swift Boat ads, gives an interesting impression about the relationship between media events and the time lag in public opinion. Which is why I'm concerned but not horribly worried about the damage done to Kerry with the most naked, despicable lies we've seen in presidential politics since 1972. That must be their best shot, but now a plurality of Americans believe that the Bush campaign was behind a really vile attack.

The pessimist in me says that the damage (though it's all pretty much in the margin of error, and note the always strongly conservative running Gallup polls lack of effect) is real, but I think that's the surly comfort of cynicism. My best guess is that a plurality of Americans will connect the wink and nod at lies between these ads and Iraq, which adds up to a very effective indictment of the administration- I think we see the beginings of this in the above poll.

What has not changed at all is the strong bias among undecided voters that the country is on the wrong track, a historically powerful indicator that they will vote for the challenger. Kerry has the advantage in a dead heat.