Big Mo Keep on Rollin'

Where to begin? Cheney takes a break from surly dissembling for a moment of surly self delusion, regarding the devastating official US WMD weapons report, which clearly justifies the Iraq war. Apparrantly.

Oil hits $53 a barrel, and the Market reacts. (Bad news that I am happy to have for the moment.)

Tom DeLay steps in yet another pile of poo, prompting calls for ouster.

The CIA leak is back in the news with an NYT reporter held in contempt.

Paul Bremer directly contradicts himself over need for more troops.

Limbaugh loses in court.

Kerry pulls ahead significantly in AP poll, as well as several others in key states, goes behind on one, and ties most of the rest. All polls are narrrowing substantially.

I also noticed that the news networks opened the floodgates on Bush officials (Powell, Cheney, Rumsfeld, Bremer) directly contradicting themselves on tape.

And there's a debate tomorrow night. I'll make a limited call - Bush will get much nastier, Kerry will keep an even keel. Bush will go this way for two reasons - the last debate was his attempt to be positive (I know, eww) and even. It failed very, very badly, looking defensive, and vaporizing a significant lead. And GOP goons will note how effective the convention was with Kerry bashing, and that the nasty Cheney was not knocked out.

Kerry will not change his demeanor at all - but not statically, do not underestimate his ability to think on his feet.

Bush might stumble badly with this- many voters are ready to change their minds (all the pollsters say this), were not sure about K, but they've already heard months of really vicious attacks; unless Bush accuses him of being a pedophile, nothing will be new. Bush will look mean and desparate, even though he's tied. Kerry will look more and more like the President.

One thing I can attest to personally is the format - Kerry has gotten really impressive in person; Bush will start off much more comfortably with an audience to see and react to, but he has been living in a land of pre-screened audiences. Unused to contradiction in person (see last debate face), I think he will be flat footed at an aggressive audience question. If he goes after an audience member, get ready to laugh with glee.

My call: Bush starts off great, but with a high (though far from certain) risk of getting destroyed as the evening goes on. His biggest asset is (bullshit) folksiness - but will it stand this test? His biggest danger is not attacking Kerry (expect LOTS of that) , but attacking an audience member for a fairly reasonable question. His rep as arrogant will be cemented. One thing undecideds definitely don't want is to think that their president disrespects questioning him - it is, after all, what they do.

It occurs to me- if you really are undecided, how effective is it to say someone can't be president because they can't make up their mind? *

* I stand by the minority but ancient and legitimate use of "their" as a singular pronoun in the English language.