The First Third

Dr. X posts this from the Mean Regression Archives at Stanford (0-5, 1-4 against the spread) University:

"Football season is now a third over, give or take a game.

"And, after two years of relative stability at the top of the IAYPA rankings, a changing of the guard is underway.

"At the top we find a new old face, Donovan McNabb, whose IAYPA of 8.8 is two standard deviations above the league average. The chance that this a fluke result and McNabb is just an average quarterback who got lucky for a few games is roughly the same as the chance of being hit by lightning while wearing a rubber suit in your basement. (Not that there's anything wrong with that.)

"McNabb's awesome this year. He has about the same number of attempts as Brad Johnson, but almost 500 more yards. He has about the same number of attempts as Cleveland's Charlie Frye, but instead of nine interceptions, he has one. One. Yes, I know the right of free travel, but I'm saying...ONE. That's how good he is. And oh yes, 11 TDs.

"Kudos to #2 Mark Bulger (7.45), who has about the same number of attempts as McNabb and zero interceptions, but is averaging 7.5 yards per completion (a very good number) compared to McNabb's somewhat mind-boggling 9.1.

"The rest of the best:

• "#3: Yakima's own Damon Huard (7.39), come on down! Fewer attempts than McNabb and Bulger, but 5 TDs and no INTs. With 10 years in the league he now qualifies as a wily veteran. Candidate for mean regression since a lot of the damage was against the 49ers.
  
• "#4: Rex 'The Truth' Grossman (7.2). A confident, mobile quarterback with a strong arm who doesn't make many mistakes. I've seen enough - Rex can play.
• #5: David Carr, Peyton Manning, and Mark Brunnell (6.9). Hats off to Carr - sacked 15 times, he still has delivered the goods.

"Sad tales:

• "Andrew Walter (1.6). You know, Brett Favre is not having a good year. He leads the league in attempts (203) but has thrown five interceptions, giving him a below-average IAYPA of 5.1. That mediocre. But Walter has six interceptions in 78 attempts - that's bad. Remember how I used to say Randy Moss would help Oakland's new quarterback post good numbers? I don't say that anymore...
  
• "Vince Young (2.0).
  
• "Ben Roethlisberger (2.2). No, really. The man who threw only seven interceptions all of last year has thrown seven in his first four games. Arrogance? Brain damage? I don't know, but wear those helmets, kids.
• "Kerry Collins (2.8). I don't like Randy Moss, but the people who throw to him get a lot worse after he leaves. Collins looked ok last season, starting well and finishing with an average IAYPA. This year he's terrible. The same thing happened to Culpepper last year - his performance collapsed after he and Moss left the Vikings. Mike Tice is onto something: Randy would like to be traded, and unlike Owens, he could help a good team without destroying it. He is still capable of delivering on the field.

"Other notes:

• "Culpepper's play is not as bad as people say. He's in the top 15 on IAYPA (6.9) despite being sacked a league-leading 21 times.
  
• "Some old guys are looking in the rearview mirror. Bledsoe (4.2) and Plummer (4.3) are both vulnerable, as their backups had excellent IAYPAs in preseason. Despite the hype, McNair (4.6) hasn't played well, and neither has Michael Vick (4.7).
• "You know who else sucks right now? Matt Hasselbeck (4.0). Seven INTs, same as Roethlisberger. Of course I'd rather have his 6 TDs than Roethlisberger's zero... Last year Hasselbeck started off ok and got better as the year went on. Let's hope the pattern repeats itself.

"One other thing - Alex Smith (6.7) is for real."