"Mr. Momentum" meet "Mr. Math"
According to the press' narrative, Hillary has broken the Obama momentum and it's a neck-and-neck fight to the finish.
But let's take a moment to examine that...
There are 611 delegates up for grabs in the remaining 12 contests. Unless there's a pretty big landslide with those (unlikely), it's going to come down to the Superdelegates.
Still, if the upcoming 611 delegates at stake split 59/41 for Clinton -- 360 would go to Clinton and 251 would go to Obama -- Clinton would have a net gain of 109 delegates. . . which would be just enough to overcome Obama's current 106 delegate lead. Clinton wins the popular vote (well, actually, I believe she still loses that, but I digress) and has a good case for being the nominee.
I don't think anyone predicts that happening, unless Hillary gets them to count the Florida and Michigan delegates 'as is'
Alternatively, she's going for a "get the superdelegates" strategy that says "well, I lost the popular vote, but only I won the big states, and (thanks to my negative campaigning) I'm picking up more votes now than before, so if we held the whole thing over again, I'd win."
Either one of which is, what's the word... slimy.
My only real question (besides "Is Hillary stupid enough to think she could overcome the extra 'negatives' she'd pick up with the tactics mentioned above") is "why isn't the press calling her campaign finished"?
Or I'm being terribly naive about what sort of wheeling and dealing is possible with the Superdelegates.
posted by The Sum of All Monkeys at 11:50 AM
3 Comments:
actually a lot of press folks HAVE been calling for hillary to quit.
but she won't. because this isn't about the country. it's about her. it always has been. she doesn't understand the obama movement because she doesn't CARE about just how deeply america needs something REALLY new.
i honestly think that in her heart of hearts she knows barrack is a the better candidate for the country and the world. but it doesn't matter.
she's a clinton, through and through and it's always been about her.
All I can say is that having defended Hillary Clinton from abusive Republican comments for years, I now come to find out that she has turned into the person they said she was. And by the way, don't give me that crap about fearing a strong woman. I am married to one.
Hillary Clinton is hurting the Party. Bill Clinton has destroyed his legacy in short order. I have voted for Obama and if the Super delegates take this away from him it could be the beginning of a split that will lead to a third party.
The slight advantage that Hillary Clinton gained this last week by going all in on spurious nonsense seems to have evaporated already.
(This just in: Clinton actually LOST Texas and Nevada in the delegate count. The delegate count is the purpose of the exercise.)
But the damage within the party is substantial - I felt a flash of real anger toward her campaign this week, and this is being echoed with many people I talk to.
Two things: I think Popmonkey's nailed it. The Clintons will put self success above the better interest. The line about McCain and her crossing the threshold of being Commander in chief convinced me of this argument.
The "as far as I know" bullshit about Obama's faith was slimy semiotics directed to quiet surburban racists. There are too many of these instances now to convince me they are not consciously trying to stoke fears of a black man as president.
I also want to echo Viceroy's comment: it isn't strong women - it's this woman. Pelosi and Boxer have never cheesed me off like this - Pelosi in particular has the makings of a U.S. President. It might be instructive to say that I would oppose Feinstein as the Democratic nominee for a lot of the same reasons I oppose Clinton.
Closing: the MSM is probably overstressing the competitiveness of the race. There is no apparent mass movement of superdelegates toward Clinton, still, it's rather the opposite. I get the sense of some anti-Clinton payback within the party now that they've shown weakness.
Clinton lost TX, WY, and will lose MS and North Carolina, and probably MI if there's a do-over, which even in a close loss will give him delegates he didn't have and. The superdelegates should not have this power, and I will work to defeat it at my state convention if I can go, but they aren't stupid. Supporting Clinton against a popular vote, delegate count, and ultimately a mass movement would be a recipe for the lasting irrelevance of a Democratic party on the verge of a national breakthrough.
This is obvious enough that it's unlikely.
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