The Legend: An update

We first noted the estimable Tim Lincecum when he came up to the Giants in 2007. Despite concerns about his durability, he has remained a solid contributor for the team, starting 33 games in 2008, and, oh yes, winning the National League Cy Young Award.

A couple of updates on the 160-pound Noisy Cricket:

• Walks per nine innings: 2007 - 4.0, 2008 - 3.3, 2009 ytd - 2.2
• Strikeout/walk ratio: 2007 - 2.3, 2008 - 3.2, 2009 ytd - 4.6
• Quality start % (MLB average is 49%): 2007 - 67%, 2008 - 79%, 2009 ytd - 81%
  
• For his career... Batting average (righties) - .228, Batting average (lefties) - .219
  

Bill James has a tool called the Black Ink Test, which measures how many times a player has led the league in important statistical categories. The average Hall of Famer has 40 points under this metric. Juan Marichal, the greatest Giants pitcher of all time, has 34. Lincecum, midway through his 3rd season, has 16.

I still doubt he'll last. Of the 10 most similar pitchers to him through age 25, none are in the Hall. He reminds some people of Ben Sheets, who's been hurt a lot in his career. The guy he reminds me of the most is Bouton (of Ball Four fame), who threw so hard early in his career that his hat would fall off. Eventually, his arm did, too.

And then there's the EA curse...

Lincecum doesn't look hurt yet. Last night he shut out the Cardinals (6/30 clip...take a look at the fielding play he makes at 0:43) in what Schulman at the Chronicle says "might rank as the best start of his career." He was perfect into the 5th inning. He finished with eight strikeouts against zero walks. We're not talking about the Toledo Mud Hens here - he did that against one of the best lineups in the National League.

It can't last. No one stays at this level. But right now - well, he weighs 160 pounds and I can't say I've ever seen a better pitcher.